Experts say results of Dutch election are highly unpredictable
"Anything is still up for grabs," said Dr. Kristof Jacobs, an associate professor at Radboud University in Nijmegen. "In 2023, the previous election, 40% of the voters made their decision who to vote for only in the last week before the election day. That is very common in the Netherlands."
The early vote was triggered by the collapse of Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s coalition in June 2025, after Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) withdrew in protest over the government’s refusal to adopt tougher immigration and asylum policies.
Jacobs noted that polling trends and televised debates are the two most decisive factors shaping voter choices in the final stretch of the campaign. "Voters in the Netherlands tend to take notice of who is the biggest in the polls. If they are more right-wing voters, they tend to look at who is the biggest right-wing party. If they are more left-wing voters, they tend to look at who is the biggest left-wing," he explained.
While recent opinion polls suggest that PVV could secure the largest share of votes, Jacobs cautioned that this would not necessarily translate into control of the next government. In the Dutch parliamentary system, a party must win 76 of the 150 seats to govern alone — something that "hasn't happened in the Netherlands for a very long time."
"Finishing first in the Netherlands is basically a meaningless thing, or at least it doesn't have that much meaning ... You always need a coalition," he said.
Jacobs described it as "very unlikely" that PVV will join the next government, given that several other parties — including the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) — have already ruled out working with it. The most plausible scenario, he said, would be a center-right coalition, though much depends on the strength of the left-wing GroenLinks–Labour alliance led by Frans Timmermans.
No matter which party comes out on top, Jacobs predicted that coalition negotiations will stretch for months after the Oct. 29 vote. "We'll probably spend the next few months after the election day watching ministers entering a building and then negotiating in them, nothing happens until I guess perhaps around the summer, they'll have a new government," he said.
He warned that the incoming administration will inherit significant challenges, including a severe housing shortage, rising healthcare costs, and widespread public distrust in government. "The housing crisis is very difficult to tackle and still there. The healthcare crisis is still there. There's low trust in politics, low trust in government. So the new government will enter under difficult circumstances."
"What we've seen in the past few years is that there's never a dull moment in Dutch politics. So, I'm not expecting that to happen, but who knows," Jacobs added.
The campaign has largely revolved around three major public concerns — immigration, housing, and healthcare. "The housing prices in the Netherlands are very high and a lot of people want to have a stable health care system but the health care system is very expensive," Jacobs said.
Turnout is projected to remain high at around 80%, similar to previous elections. However, Jacobs warned that some disillusioned PVV supporters might opt to stay home instead of switching allegiance. "These voters tend to, rather than vote for another party, stay at home so they don't go to another party. They just don't vote then," he explained.
On international affairs, Jacobs forecast little change in the Netherlands’ foreign policy orientation. "The most likely scenario is back to normal," he said. "The last government was basically relatively passive ... What you can expect with the next government is that at the international level, they'll basically join the other countries."
If the left-wing bloc gains influence and secures the Foreign Affairs Ministry, however, the Netherlands could take a somewhat more assertive diplomatic approach. "I would say that basically what you can expect is that the Netherlands will not be the frontrunner, not the one making new demands, but rather trying to make sure that they are aligned with the middle or the other governments in Europe," he added.
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